Guoer Liu

Guoer Liu

Assistant Professor
Department of Political Science
University of California, San Diego

guoerliu@ucsd.edu

I study how automation reshapes governance by changing the way governments produce data, exercise discretion, and shape public trust. My research focuses on environmental governance in China. I also work on causal inference and survey methodology. [CV]

Working papers

When Automation Builds Trust: Information Credibility and Authoritarian Rule

Getting the Counterfactual Right in Survey-Timing Designs

with Yusaku Horiuchi, Jieun Oh, and Yuki Shiraito

Book manuscript

Automated: Why Governments Bind Themselves to Machines

Publications

Why the Average Treatment Effect for the Overlap Population (ATO) Matters for Natural Experiments

with Kevin M. Quinn

Journal of Law and Empirical Analysis, forthcoming

What to Observe When Assuming Selection on Observables

with Kevin M. Quinn, Lee Epstein, and Andrew D. Martin

Political Analysis, 34(1): 1-22, 2026 [code]

Where Are the Missing Dead? How Metrics Management Mitigates Official Data Misreporting in China

Journal of Political Institutions and Political Economy, 4(2): 231-258, 2023 [paper]

Multiple Hypothesis Testing in Conjoint Analysis

with Yuki Shiraito

Political Analysis, 31(3): 380-395, 2023 [code]

The Clash of Traditional Values: Opposition to Female Monarchs

with Kenneth Mori McElwain and Yuki Shiraito

European Political Science Review, 15(2): 291-310, 2023

Socialist Models of Development

with Andrew Kilmister

In Poverty and Development: Into the 21st Century, 3rd ed., Oxford University Press, 2021